Ad hoc: Impact of Coronavirus and decision on StreetScooter
02/28/2020 12:55 PM CET
Since the Chinese government has introduced measures to contain the Coronavirus, DPDHL Group has been consistently monitoring the volume development in its networks. In the past weeks, trade volumes have weakened, not only on the inbound and outbound China trade lanes but also in countries of Asia; constraints on industrial production are increasingly expected also outside of China.
The Group had seen a very good start into the current year in January and was prepared for the usual effects round Chinese New Year in February when the measures of the Chinese government were introduced. Since then the business development in Post & Parcel Germany as well as in DHL Supply Chain and DHL eCommerce Solutions has only been marginally impacted by the Corona crisis. In contrast, the Group currently sees more significant effects for the DHL Express and DHL Global Forwarding divisions, where the business is particularly affected with regards to cross-border trade flows into and out of China.
Group-wide the negative impacts of the Corona crisis on Group EBIT amount to around EUR60-70m for the month of February, compared to the initial internal planning.
Implications for the DPDHL results for full year 2020 will ultimately depend on a series of factors, which in the phase of recovering production volumes can also have an offsetting positive effect. As of today, it cannot be concretely assessed, over which time horizon, in which divisions and to what extent, there will be negative effects, and how far these can be balanced by offsetting positive effects.
In case of a longer duration or a worsening of the current situation over the next months, the negative effects for the Group are likely to outweigh the positives. The concrete earnings impact can only be assessed after a normalization of the situation.
Also against the background of the global economic uncertainties the Group decided to not further actively pursue the current exploratory talks regarding partnership options for the StreetScooter activities. Instead, StreetScooter will concentrate on the operation of the current fleet of vehicles (plus planned additions).
The refocusing of StreetScooter - a change outside of the company´s core businesses - is expected to result in one-off charges of EUR 300-400m for this financial year. The impact on the cash flow, however, will be limited.
The 2020 guidance for a Group EBIT of more than EUR5bn is hence as of now excluding any still to be quantified effect induced by Corona implications, as well as the above mentioned charges related to the decision on StreetScooter.
2022 guidance for a Group EBIT of minimum EUR 5.3bn is not at all affected by this.
As the guidance update is taking advance on the publication of 2019 full-year results planned for March 10th, we would also like to publish the following key numbers of the preliminary closure of FY2019 accounts:
(in EUR bn)
Group revenue 63.341
Group EBIT: 4.128
P&P Germany: 1.230
Global Forwarding, Freight: 0.521
Supply Chain: 0.912
eCommerce Solutions: -0.051
Corporate Functions: -0.523
Group Capex: 3.617
Group Free Cash Flow: 0.867
Explanations on these financial indicators are available in the 2018 Deutsche Post DHL Group Annual Report (see page 21f.), which is published on the company's website.